kin888

I have really ignore HK films this past year, only watching 那一天我們會飛. So these are very blind predictions.

最佳電影
《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 《五個小孩的校長》) -- but I can really see 十年 doing it.
I think it is kind of funny that the film they select to represent Hong Kong at the Oscars got 2 nominations total, whereas the two front runners are bypassed.

最佳導演
翁子光《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 徐克《智取威虎山》)

最佳編劇
關信輝、張佩瓊《五個小孩的校長》
(alt: 翁子光《踏血尋梅》)
Easy place to reward the film.

最佳男主角
郭富城《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 張學友《暗色天堂》)
Two actors with an overdue aura. Aaron is in the more well-received film and in a role that is more fitting with his recent nominations. High Leonardo DiCaprio parallels.

最佳女主角
湯唯《三城記》
(alt: 林嘉欣《暗色天堂》)
I think all five have really good cases. I just don't think people care about 暗色天堂, and it is currently in theaters! Tang Wei is also quite overdue.

最佳男配角
白只《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 張晉《葉問3》)
Quite safe. Supporting categories are kind to new actors, plus winning in Taiwan generally helps.

最佳女配角
金燕玲《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 吳浣儀《五個小孩的校長》)
Winning a 3rd is easier when she is 1) frequently nominated; 2) hasn't won in nearly 20 years and 3) starring in the potential best picture.

最佳新演員
春夏《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 白只《踏血尋梅》)
I am not sure if this had happened (winning in his/her category after losing new artist) but it is easier when the other is also nominated? And supporters of her performance will likely all go here.

最佳攝影
杜可風《踏血尋梅》
(alt: 蔡崇輝 《智取威虎山》)
Very difficult to bet against Christopher Doyle.

最佳剪接
于柏楊《智取威虎山》
(alt: 張嘉輝《葉問3》)

最佳美術指導
易振洲《智取威虎山》
(alt: 張叔平、邱偉明《華麗上班族》)
All popular, including 葉錦添. So going with the best picture nominee.

最佳動作設計
袁和平《葉問3》
(alt: 元彬《志取威虎山》)
錢家樂/李忠志 will eventually stop losing to these two, but not with these films.

最佳原創電影音樂
羅大佑、陳輝陽《華麗上班族》
(alt: 丁可《踏血尋梅》)
It's a musical.

最佳原創電影歌曲
差一點我們會飛
(alt: 漆黑的海上)
Allowing myself one prediction based solely on my love for the nominee.

最佳服裝造型設計
權裕辰《智取威虎山》
(alt: 張叔平《華麗上班族》)
Even 張叔平 will have difficulty winning for non-period.

最佳音響效果
曾景祥、李耀強、姚俊軒《智取威虎山》
(alt: David Richardson、杜篤之、吳書瑤《華麗上班族》)
Even though he is nominated pretty much every year (and often with multiple nominations in a year), 曾景祥 only won once in 10 years. So it isn't that bad.

最佳視覺效果
Jason Snell、潘國瑜、湯冰冰《捉妖記》
(alt: 伊諾、黎子飛《陀地驅魔人》)

新晉導演
許誠毅《捉妖記》
(alt: 劉浩良《衝鋒車》)
I don't think they care too much about actor-turned directors, not that there are lots of examples in Hong Kong. The Hollywood success of 許誠毅 may prove too tempting to ignore. 劉浩良's screenplay nomination also makes him a very strong candidate.

最佳兩岸華語電影
《刺客聶隱娘》
(alt: 《我的少女時代》)
Prestige vs. popularity. Last year suggest that a big-time director has an edge, but 那些年 shows some films are too big to ignore. I am going with the former for now.

So a very different list than the leaked one and even though guessing it for 7 wins, I can see 踏血尋梅 only winning 2 for 白只. We will see who is more wrong...

kin888

吳肇軒! Too bad his film is in a year with so many (great) new actors. I hope he has a better career than Baby John.

kin888

They are not cutting anyone off this year. It is looking like they will overrun by quite a bit.

kin888

Kind of rude to not show when you have four nominations. When you are such a big part of the industry, you should try to support it?

kin888

Maybe they should put it in theaters again. I can't expect to catch it during Oscar season...

kin888

congrats. put this back in theaters also.

kin888

What a great ending. I thought it was possible, but then it really happened. 10/19 for my predictions, but more of my "alternatives" won than last year.

Overall, great improvement when compared with last year. The host was more comfortable and the respect for the arts more apparent. The only downside is too many behind-the-scene artists didn't show up. Wondering if it has something to do with the best picture winner?

kin888

其實金像獎公信力算唔算好高?
I mean啲評委係咪足夠客觀同公正

離身 比較少留意影壇既情況 ...
bagfgfcde 發表於 2016-4-3 23:49

It's the only option out there...

Regardless, it opens up even more people to be aware of the film and go to seek it out. (Like me.)

kin888

Weird stats that fascinate me:

踏血尋梅 become the first film to win all 4 acting awards. Previously 女人四十 and 新不了情 won 3 each (with a nomination in the 4th category). The Oscars had never produce a film with all 4 acting wins either, with Network and A Streetcar Named Desire winning 3 each.

It is also the first film with 5 major wins (acting+screenplay) with no best picture win.  天水圍的日與夜 had 4 wins. The record for most major wins with no picture or director wins was 竊聽風雲3 last year with 3.

It tied 英雄 with most overall wins without winning best picture (7 each). The Oscars record is Cabaret with 8.

Tsui Hark now has 3 best director awards, but none of those 3 won best picture as well.

kin888

見到上面有人打趣說 十年 係咪等於 原來她不夠愛我，
我覺得係一個好可愛嘅比喻，
可惜唔會有電影人明白 原來她不夠愛我 係乜，
如果唔係，我諗佢地都會懂得苦笑
Bluejays 發表於 2016-4-4 15:29

I don't agree with this comparison at all. 五個小孩的校長 would be slightly closer -- a populist success with an emotional background story.
十年 is a zeitgeist vote, but I am more "acceptable" of its win than 撐起雨傘 for 2 reasons. One, 十年 is actually quite ambitious in tone and even style (just judging from clips for now). I have no problems at all if HK filmmakers try to tap into ideology/genre of 十年, whereas 撐起雨傘 is ultimately no different from songs like 明天會更好/同步過冬/We are the World. And two, 獨家村 already offer a great combination of artistry and timeliness so I always wished that had won instead.

kin888

打擂台 係 香港電影評論學會 最佳電影，
十年 喺 電影評論學會 冇任何獎項。

電影評論學會 一向都著重  ...
Bluejays 發表於 2016-4-4 18:44

It was one of the "推薦電影", so I don't think they think it's mediocre or anything.

kin888

回復 684# Bluejays

It is a very good point. I guess I mean Kwan Gor is trying to go very commercial with that song, basically risk free. But I can see how 十年 can be considered a commercial pull too for the more cynical among the film industry.